2025Q4 2nd release, GDPNow, and Survey of Professional Forecasters:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (3/13) (light blue square), March Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), Goldman Sachs forecasts for pre- and post-Iran action (light green inverted triangles), bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q4 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed (March), and author’s calculations.
The SPF forecasts were compiled between February 20-March 2, with the bulk of responses in the last days before the deadline. That means some of the responses might have taken into account the war, but it’s unclear how much information was incorporated as 3/2 was only the third day of the conflict.
Goldman Sachs (3/12)assuming a 21 day Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and gradual adjustment back to normal flows, predicts a 0.3 ppt reduction in Q4/Q4 growth rate (2.5% to 2.2%).
Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow (3/13) (light blue square), March Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q4 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed (March), and author’s calculations.
The Atlanta Fed nowcast for “Core GDP” is running below the SPF forecast.
