Browsing: Economy

From Kalshi: My conjecture: As long as the probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening goes down, the betting odds of…

Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm payroll (NFP)…

Smith begins An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations with the following claim: “The greatest…

From MarketPlace today with Justin Ho, Claudia Sahm and I comment. My remarks based on observation on betting. For SOFR:…

But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket: From Kalshi over comparable period: Kalshi rises to 31.6% from 23.1% on February…

The Centre for Economic Strategy held an online roundtable discussion titled “How can Ukraine build a win-win partnership with EU…

“Smith is a friend of competitive markets and the division of labor and the institutions that secure these. But within…

We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series. Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in CES Nonfarm Payroll employment…

“What’s up with the economy?” is a weekly podcast by the Centre for Economic Strategy in collaboration with Hromadske Radio…

Today at Econlib, we’re joining our friends at Liberty Matters in their celebration of the 250th anniversary of the publication…