On July 26, Taiwan will set a new record for a developed democracy, holding recall referendums for 24 opposition legislators as well as one opposition mayor. This is nothing to be proud of; the mass recalls of more than a fifth of Taiwan’s legislature are the latest sign of a political crisis that has largely gone unnoticed internationally.
Since last year, vicious political fighting, sometimes literally, has erupted between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition led by the Kuomintang (KMT). Along with the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), the KMT holds the legislative majority after winning a combined 62 seats out of 113 in the 2024 elections.
On July 26, Taiwan will set a new record for a developed democracy, holding recall referendums for 24 opposition legislators as well as one opposition mayor. This is nothing to be proud of; the mass recalls of more than a fifth of Taiwan’s legislature are the latest sign of a political crisis that has largely gone unnoticed internationally.
Since last year, vicious political fighting, sometimes literally, has erupted between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition led by the Kuomintang (KMT). Along with the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), the KMT holds the legislative majority after winning a combined 62 seats out of 113 in the 2024 elections.
What is happening now is a deliberate campaign to unseat dozens of opposition legislators and thus regain the legislative majority for the ruling DPP. Besides the 25 recall referendums on July 26, another seven KMT legislators will face recall votes on Aug. 23, meaning 31 KMT legislators, out of a total of 52, will face recalls.
This is a clear abuse of the law. While recalls have been held in the past in Taiwan, they were rare and a result of significant public dissatisfaction toward certain politicians. But the system has always been potentially vulnerable to manipulation. Applications to recall any politician don’t need a specific reason and only require clearing two rounds of signature collections (totaling 1 percent of the district electorate and then 10 percent), after which the actual referendum is held. The minimum participation threshold for the referendum to be valid is just 25 percent of the electorate.
The recall campaign against the KMT legislators—known locally as the “Great Recall”—was started late last year by several supposedly grassroots groups that suddenly sprung out and all focus only on the opposition. The reasons originally given by these groups and their supporters for launching the campaign were that the KMT was too pro-China and repeatedly blocked bills proposed by the ruling DPP, as well as made cuts to the budget such as on defense spending.
However, last year, multiple legislative battles resulted from DPP legislators trying to block opposition bills by physically preventing voting from taking place. One of these opposition bills was aimed at increasing legislative oversight of the executive branch, led by President Lai Ching-te, a member of the DPP. Although the bill passed, Taiwan’s highest court eventually ruled much of it invalid.
That the opposition has voted down bills proposed by the DPP is a normal part of democracy, especially when the opposition has control of the legislature—as is oversight by the courts. Governments aren’t entitled to a rubber-stamp legislature, and legislators can’t pass invalid laws. Trying to circumvent this through abusing the recall process is a bad move—and an undemocratic one.
It is true that some KMT legislators and former party leader Ma Ying-jeou have visited China in recent years. But this isn’t illegal, and it provides important ballast in a fraught relationship. Taiwan needs to have one of its two main parties be able to speak to China, since the DPP has had no official interactions with Beijing since Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016.
When the KMT tried to organize retaliatory recalls against DPP legislators, electoral authorities found problems with recall petitions, such as alleged fake signatures, and launched a wave of arrests and searches of KMT offices across Taiwan. As of last week, around 100 KMT staffers have been questioned and indicted by the authorities. While some of the alleged problems with the KMT petitions may be genuine, it is quite convenient for the government that the opposition’s recall attempts have resulted in islandwide searches and arrests.
The KMT has accused Lai of acting like a dictator and the DPP of being “green communists” (green being the DPP’s color). In April, the KMT held a huge rally in downtown Taipei, which I attended, where at least 60,000 people rallied against the DPP and called for Lai to step down.
However, the government’s heavy-handedness against the opposition also extends to the TPP. The party’s leader, former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, was arrested last year for alleged property corruption during his mayoral tenure and has been held in detention for almost a year. Ko ran for president in the January 2024 election, finishing a strong third behind Lai and the KMT’s candidate, Hou Yu-ih, with 26.5 percent of the vote. It is not hard to see why many think that Ko’s case is politically motivated.
The TPP also held a large rally in Taipei in January, where they slammed the DPP for going after Ko. The one mayor who will be subject to recall on July 26, Kao Hung-an, is a member of the TPP and has staunchly defended herself against allegations of misconduct.
Tragically, at the start of this month, the wife of one of Ko’s fellow defendants, former Taipei Deputy Mayor Pong Cheng-sheng, died in an apparent suicide. This prompted Pong to retract his confessionsaying he had only done so to spare his family anguish, which was now moot given his wife’s death.
These worsening partisan politics make society more divided, not united. The claims by the DPP and the supposed grassroots groups that to protect Taiwan the opposition’s legislators must be recalled, and the results of the last election effectively canceled, come dangerously close to arguing for single-party rule.
Of course, it is not guaranteed that most of the recalls will succeed. Recent poll results have shown that much of the Taiwanese public is not supportive of the mass recalls. Also, if any recall succeeds, the incumbent politician will have to resign—but a by-election will have to be held within a specified number of months, which could still be won by another candidate from the ousted incumbent’s party. That said, the DPP only needs to win back six legislative seats to regain the majority.
All this means is that a significant amount of time, resources, and national funds are being spent on the recall referendums that could be better used on any of Taiwan’s pressing domestic issues. When the recall elections are held in July and August, regardless of the results, it will be a black eye for Taiwan’s backsliding democracy.
