by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM
The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th.
From Goldman Sachs economists:
We expect a 0.33% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.08% (vs. +3.0% consensus). We expect a 0.27% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) but lower energy prices (-0.6%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.31% increase in core PCE in July.
…
Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4%. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets.
From BofA:
We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.24% m/m in July, and core CPI increased by 0.31%
m/m. If correct, core CPI would increase to 3.1% y/y from 2.9%. Tariffs likely drove an
acceleration in goods price hikes despite further declines in vehicle prices. Meanwhile, a
rise in airfares should contribute to an uptick in core services ex housing inflation.
This graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.
The circled area is the change for last July. CPI was up 0.14% in July 2024, and core CPI was up 0.19%. So, anything above those readings for July will push up year-over-year inflation.
Starting this month, the tariff related inflation is expected to kick in.
