Demographers project that Ukraine’s population could fall to just 25 million by 2050. Currently, around 30 million people live in government-controlled territory, according to the Institute for Demography. Long-term forecasts based on current trends suggest that by 2100, the population could shrink further to only 15 million.
The government is attempting to strengthen financial support for families with children, believing that money can help address key barriers to having and raising children.
On August 19, the Verkhovna Rada passed in first reading a bill that increases cash benefits for families upon the birth of a child. The central provision raises the childbirth benefit from UAH 41,280 to UAH 50,000.
While the increase itself is modest, the structure of payments has changed. Previously, families received an initial tranche of UAH 10,320 followed by monthly installments of UAH 860 over three years. Now, the full UAH 50,000 will be paid out upfront.
«Some studies show that families with children are more likely than other groups to rely on consumer credit, which indicates a clear need for additional funds. This type of assistance can indeed be helpful», notes Iryna Ippolitova, Senior Researcher at the Centre for Economic Strategy.
The bill also includes other provisions. Unemployed pregnant women will be eligible for a monthly allowance of UAH 7,000. A parent or grandparent staying home with a child under the age of one will receive UAH 7,000 per month as well. If both parents return to work once the child turns one, the family will be entitled to up to UAH 8,000 per month under the «eYasla» program, designed to cover childcare or nanny expenses until the child turns three. If, however, one parent remains at home beyond the child’s first birthday, the government will cover that parent’s social security contributions (SSC), ensuring that this period counts toward their pension record, until the child reaches age three.
«An important aspect is labor market participation. These measures provide payments that can be directed toward childcare, such as hiring a nanny. This will allow mothers to return to work sooner, which is crucial for Ukraine right now. Labor shortages are among the top challenges identified by Ukrainian businesses, and the government projects a medium-term workforce gap of around 4.5 million people», Ippolitova explains.
According to the Institute for Demography, Ukraine’s fertility rate currently stands at 0.8 — meaning ten women give birth to only eight children on average, while the replacement level requires about 2.2 children per woman. This is not unique to Ukraine: similar declining fertility trends are evident across Europe and developed countries in Asia.
Ukraine’s steepest fertility declines occurred either during periods of economic instability in the 1990s or amid the onset of war with Russia in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022. Birth rates rose only during relatively stable and economically favorable years from 2002 to 2012, CES analysts note.
Between 2010 and 2013, Ukraine’s fertility rate was 1.5. At that time, people now aged 35–45 were becoming parents — the largest demographic cohort in today’s Ukraine. At present, the average age of first-time mothers is 28, and for fathers 30. Meanwhile, the 20–30 age group is the smallest in today’s demographic structure, limiting the overall number of potential births.
«The fertility decline is not just a Ukrainian phenomenon. Falling fertility rates are observed across European countries as well. The causes are both socio-cultural and economic. On the one hand, women more often pursue higher education and career development, leading to later and fewer births. On the other hand, having children significantly raises household expenses. In this context, strong family support policies, along with access to healthcare, childcare, education, and housing, can play a role in raising fertility. However, the fiscal cost of such measures is substantial, especially for a country at war», says Ippolitova.
Source: Hromadske
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