Together with German Economic Team we approached leading Ukrainian and international analytical teams with a request to share their views on key macroeconomic indicators at the end of 2025 and 2026. You will find visualisations of the most important forecasts right here on this page; you can also download a presentation with more details.
In 2025, forecasts by non-government economists have deteriorated. The median expectation is 2% GDP growth in 2025 (down from a 2.25% consensus in July). This implies a slowdown from the actual 2.9% growth recorded in 2024. At the same time, nominal GDP is expected to finally exceed $200 bn.
The inflation forecast for 2025 has improved compared with forecasters’ expectations in July. As of December, private analysts expect inflation of 8.8% at year-end in 2025or 12.9% average annual inflation.
For 2026, the minimum growth forecast is 1%, while the maximum is 5% under a peace scenario and 2.6% if the war continues. It is difficult to assess what lies ahead amid ongoing attacks, the EU’s inability to replace the US in supporting Ukraine, and pressure towards a peace agreement. Even so, median expectations are somewhat better than for 2025: GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 2.4%inflation to slow, and the hryvnia’s depreciation to be limited.
If the war continues, the budget deficit of more than 20% of GDP in 2026 (excluding grants from revenues) will remain a major challenge for public finances. Analysts estimate Ukraine’s external financing needs at around$45 bn in 2026of which about $39 bn is expected to be covered by international partners.
