Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
It was only 23% on February 27th, before the first strikes.
27.7% from Kalshi, using 2 consecutive quarter negative growth criterion.
Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
It was only 23% on February 27th, before the first strikes.
27.7% from Kalshi, using 2 consecutive quarter negative growth criterion.
