by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025.
Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in Juneunchanged from 4.1% in May and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
Key measures are above the Fed’s target on a 3-month basis.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 2.5%
Core PCE Prices: 2.6%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%
