by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 10:54:00 AM
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand.
Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”
Heavy truck sales were at 311 thousand SAAR in December, down from 336 thousand in November, and down 32.5% from 461 thousand SAAR in December 2024.
Sales were down 15.3% in 2025 compared to annual sales in 2024.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.
