Ukraine’s agricultural sector is currently facing a number of significant challenges. These issues were the focus of discussion with invited experts during the monthly economic review in November. The event is funded by the UK International Development programme.
Weather remains the most persistent and unpredictable challenge.
This year, weather conditions have led to highly uneven crop results. Both the harvest and the sowing campaign for the next year are experiencing delays. For example, as of mid-November, only 62% of corn fields had been harvested, compared to nearly 90% by this time last year. Early crops, such as wheat and rapeseed, were also collected later than usual.
In January-October 2025, agricultural output decreased by 12.4% compared to the same period last year.
However, because Ukraine spans several climate zones, crop losses in some regions are offset by increased yields in others. This is particularly visible in the shift of agricultural production from the south and east to the north and west. Despite a second consecutive year of drought, likely partly caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir, the wheat harvest exceeded the one of the last year marginally, reaching almost 23 million tonnes.
Overall, the grain and legume harvest is expected to reach 60 million tonnes, which is around 4 million tonnes more than last year. The situation with oilseeds is worse as spring crops suffer more from drought. Livestock production is also declining (except for poultry). Still, a higher grain harvest will compensate for the weaker performance in other categories, so agriculture’s contribution to real GDP growth will be positive, though modest.
Climate challenges, including those driven by global warming, will remain significant. According to Tetiana Adamenko, Head of the Department of Agrometeorology at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, the average annual temperature in 2025 was 1.2°C above normal (the Paris Agreement threshold is 1.5°C). Spring frosts also negatively affected vegetable and fruit yields this year.
Droughts are typical of Ukraine’s climate, but having two consecutive years with extremely low precipitation is unusual. Over the first 11 months of 2025, the country received only 80% of normal rainfall; some parts of the south, centre, and northeast demonstrate even poorer levels — only 50%. The distribution of rainfall across regions is highly uneven: drought risks reach 70% in the south and east, where some areas receive only 1–6 rainy days per summer.
At the same time, meteorological conditions for next year’s harvest are relatively favourable thanks to a warm and moist October–November, which improved the growth of winter crops. “It was this warmth and rainfall that allowed the plants to reach the growth stages necessary to successfully overwinter,” explains Tetiana Adamenko. Warmer winters due to global warming also reduce the risks of winter crop losses.
“The role of agriculture and food processing in Ukraine’s economy remains significant. In 2021, agricultural products accounted for 44% of all Ukrainian exports, while in 2024–2025 this share increased to around 60%. Agriculture and food processing make up roughly 10% of GDP. These high numbers persist despite the immense challenges of the full-scale war — the loss of land in occupied territories, widespread mining, destroyed infrastructure, theft and destruction of equipment, damaged farms, and severe labour shortages. According to RDNA4 estimates, by the end of 2024 direct agricultural losses reached $11 billion, while at least $55 billion will be required for recovery. Because of the war, the 2025 harvest is 70% below the record level of 2021, and livestock output has fallen by 20%,” — explains Nataliia Kolesnichenko, Senior Economist at CES.
Taras Vysotskyi, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine, agrees that weather conditions will remain a determining factor. However, the Ministry expects gradual yield growth next year, including a 10% increase in wheat sowing.
According to Vysotskyi, climate change has also reshaped Ukraine’s regional agricultural structure compared to 2021. The southeast now specialises more in winter crops such as wheat, barley, and rapeseed. The classic “corn belt” stretches from the northeast to the west and north, from Sumy to Lviv. Soybeans follow a similar pattern as they require both moisture and warmth. Sunflower crops will remain widespread wherever conditions allow, likely except in the south.
Accession to the EU is another challenge for Ukraine.
This year, the EU reinstated quotas for Ukrainian products under the updated DCFTA. While quotas are higher than in 2021 (for example, honey quotas increased more than fivefold, though wheat only by 30%), this is still less favourable than the fully duty-free access Ukraine enjoyed at the start of the full-scale invasion. Surely, accession to the EU will require Ukraine to introduce substantial domestic reforms: aligning production with high EU standards, modernising technology and infrastructure, and implementing common policies and regulatory frameworks.
At the same time, access to a larger market, financing through foreign direct investment, and cohesion funds will drive improvements in product quality, further growth in productivity and efficiency in Ukrainian agriculture, as well as strengthening of its overall competitiveness.
According to the estimates of Iana Okhrimenko, Senior Economist at CES, the return of trade restrictions has a dual effect: it is both integration and disintegration. On the one hand, liberalisation promotes economic convergence, and trade volumes have risen significantly since 2021. Besides, the new rules are still more favourable than those before the full-scale invasion. Yet, they are still a backward step since they are more restrictive than the temporary autonomous trade measures that previously granted Ukraine full access to the EU market.
According to Alex Lissitsa, Chairman of the Board of Directors of IMC and President of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association (UCAB), boosting productivity will require investment in irrigation, seed technologies, moisture-retention practices, soil treatment techniques, and more. Yet Ukrainian farmers’ investment capacity is limited by war-related costs: purchasing trucks to bypass blocked routes, fuel expenses, new logistical pathways, and ensuring energy autonomy.
Land price growth, which is currently uneven across regions (higher in the west, limited in the south and east), could eventually support greater investment capacity. But this depends on victory over Russia and the speed of Ukraine’s EU integration. Alex Lissitsa notes that when Ukraine joins the EU, land prices will likely rise rapidly, similar to Bulgaria and Romania. Immediately after accession, land prices in these countries were roughly similar to those in Ukraine now. However, since then prices have reached €8,000–12,000 per hectare, depending on region and soil quality.
Addressing labour shortages will require training and retraining, as well as greater involvement of women and retirees in agriculture. Ukraine already has several training programmes supported by international donors, such as the UK and the Netherlands, including the Agrokebety project within UCAB.
According to Oleksii Pavlenko, Advisor to the CEO of Nibulon, the company has undergone major changes over the past three years due to the destruction of river logistics (with 83 vessels blocked in Mykolaiv), loss of land in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and enormous demining costs on front-line territories. These challenges resulted in $436 million in war-related losses. For Nibulon and other Ukrainian agricultural producers, government support will be crucial in designing compensation mechanisms and ensuring accountability of the aggressor state. Such measures would be not only fair but also necessary to secure resources for restoring the sector.
Nibulon has already transformed its business model: investing in logistics, particularly Danube port routes, precision farming, and IT solutions. The company has also changed crop structures, especially in the south, shifting from sunflower to winter wheat due to climate advantages for winter crops. It is also exploring niche crops, such as cotton, chickpeas, and beans. Labour shortages (staff down from 6,200 to 1,800 during the war) are pushing the company toward increased automation.
Ukraine’s agricultural sector is unlikely to see a dramatic breakthrough soon due to an unstable climate, high logistics costs, limited land resources, and constrained finances. Nevertheless, the sector remains resilient and continues contributing to global food security thanks to the people who keep working under extraordinary conditions. The next 3–5 years will be decisive: how Ukraine manages climate risks, meets EU requirements, and overcomes wartime challenges will shape not only future harvests but also the country’s place on the global agricultural map.
