Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we’re just one week out from this year’s Munich Security Conference. As always, we’ll be producing daily SitRep pop-up editions during the three-day gathering as well as participating in several FP events with government officials and experts—which you can keep track of here.
Meanwhile, here’s what’s on tap for the day: the continued uncertainty around U.S.-Iran talksairstrikes in Syria, and the end of New START.
The United States and Iran are set to hold talks in Oman on Friday, reducing the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump making good on threats to order military strikes—for now, at least. Over the past few days, there’s been a whirlwind of mixed messages and conflicting reporting on whether the talks would happen, where they would occur, and under what terms. But the two sides are poised to move forward despite disagreements over the scope of the discussions.
“They’re negotiating,” Trump said of Iran on Thursday at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington. “They don’t want us to hit them.”
Will they/won’t they. The talks were originally slated to occur in Istanbul, with foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia also set to attend. But Iran reportedly pushed for changes at the last minute, including moving the venue to Muscat, Oman, and excluding representatives from other countries. Tehran also wanted to place strict limitations on the agenda, insisting that the discussions remain focused on its nuclear program. This threatened to derail the meeting altogether, as the Trump administration also wants to discuss limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxy groups across the Middle East.
But the White House confirmed to SitRep on Wednesday that the talks were back on, even as the precise agenda of the discussions remains up in the air. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will lead his country’s delegation on Friday, also confirmed the talks via a post on X, stating“Nuclear talks with the United States are scheduled to be held in Muscat on about 10 am Friday. I’m grateful to our Omani brothers for making all necessary arrangements.” Special envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the U.S. delegation.
The stakes. Friday will mark the first formal diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran since Trump ordered strikes on nuclear sites across the country in June 2025. The strikes did significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program but did not completely “obliterate” it, despite claims to the contrary from Trump. The location of Iran’s 400 kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium also remains unclear.
Tensions between the two countries have remained high since the U.S. strikes and have escalated in recent weeks amid Tehran’s bloody crackdown on mass anti-government protests that swept the country. Estimates on the number of demonstrators killed by Iranian security forces range from around 6,000 to more than 33,000.
Starting in early January, Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Iran over its violent response to the protests. Though Trump has not yet ordered such action, he has boosted the U.S. military presence in the region to keep his options open—and on Tuesday, a U.S. Navy fighter jet downed an Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Trump said on Wednesday that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should be “very worried.”
Friday’s talks could play a big role in determining whether Trump decides to order fresh strikes on Iran. Recent reports indicate that Tehran is concerned that a U.S. attack could reignite the protests and threaten the regime’s survival.
The Trump administration has called for Iran to stop enriching uranium and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Issues such as this will be major sticking points at the upcoming talks. But with both sides at odds over these issues—and unable to even agree on what will be discussed—a major breakthrough appears unlikely.
The controversy and confusion around U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s presence at a recent FBI raid on an election center in Georgia only continues to grow, with Trump saying on Thursday that Gabbard was there at Attorney General Pam Bondi’s insistence. Trump had said in an NBC News interview a day earlier that he didn’t know why Gabbard was present at the raid before speculating that it could be because of interference by China in U.S. elections. Gabbard said in a letter to Congress earlier in the week that Trump had “specifically directed” her to be there.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Ukraine’s ‘constructive’ negotiations. The second round of trilateral negotiations among Ukraine, Russia, and the United States over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine concluded in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, with Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov describing the talks as “constructive and focused on how to create the conditions for a durable peace.”
Russia and Ukraine each released 157 prisoners of war as part of the negotiations, their first such exchange in five months, he added. The U.S. military’s European Command also said it had agreed to resume military-to-military dialogue with Russia for the first time since late 2021.
But progress on ending the war has been slow, and this week’s talks yielded little in terms of actual results beyond the prisoner swap. Russia is continuing its assault on Ukraine, including conducting massive airstrikes on the country’s energy grid on Tuesday, the day before the Abu Dhabi negotiations began.
New START ends. On Thursday, the clock officially ran out on the last nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the United States. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) entered into force in 2011, replacing the 1991 START I treaty and placing limits on the number of nuclear weapons that Moscow and Washington—which together control 90 percent of the world’s warheads—could deploy.
Trump said on Thursday that “[r]ather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.” He has previously said that such a deal should include other major nuclear powers—namely, China. The United States and Russia are reportedly negotiating a deal to continue informally observing New START’s provisions, but for now, we’re in an uncertain nuclear limbo.
Syria strikes. The United States has recently conducted multiple airstrikes in Syria against the Islamic State, the U.S. military’s Central Command (Centcom) announced on Wednesday, hitting five targets between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2 and destroying some of the group’s communications, logistics, and weapons capabilities. “Striking these targets demonstrates our continued focus and resolve for preventing an ISIS resurgence in Syria,” Adm. Brad Cooper, the Centcom commander, said in a statement. “Operating in coordination with coalition and partner forces to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS makes America, the region and the world safer.”
Supporters of Colombian President Gustavo Petro watch a screen showing him and U.S. President Donald Trump during a rally to support Petro’s visit to the United States, seen in Bogotá on Feb. 3. Alejandro Gonzalez/AFP via Getty Images
Rishi just returned from Doha, Qatar, where he moderated a panel at the Web Summit tech conference with Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos and Pedro Lopes, Cape Verde’s secretary of state for digital economy, on how governments can effectively communicate with their citizens in the age of social media and artificial intelligence-enabled disinformation.
Both government officials stressed the importance of speed. “You have to make quick statements whenever needed,” Morcos said. Lopes, a prolific Instagrammer, said, “People don’t have time anymore for spending 15-20 minutes to read some communication of the government,” adding that “nowadays, speed and emotion beats accuracy.”
The challenge is heightened for the Lebanese government, which is overseeing a fragile cease-fire with Israel that involves negotiating the disarmament of Hezbollah. “We have difficult circumstances that we’re facing, and at the same time, we are making some reforms, and we’re moving toward stability and peace,” Morcos said. “For the citizens, they should feel relief; they should feel that they have a government working on the right track, so the message to deliver is very important.”
Lebanon just enacted a new media law, Morcos announced, aimed at updating and substituting a 1994 broadcasting regulation for the social media age. The new law, which still needs to be ratified by parliament, aims to regulate online platforms “without hurting the freedom of press,” he said, while “putting high fines for those who abuse the freedom of press and leave harms toward third parties.”
Monday, Feb. 9: The United Kingdom’s Prince William is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.
Tuesday, Feb. 10: The heads of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services are all scheduled to testify in front of the House Committee on Homeland Security.
Wednesday, Feb. 11: The United States will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defense Conference in Washington.
European Union defense ministers will meet in Brussels.
Thursday, Feb. 12: Bangladesh will hold its general election.
NATO defense ministers will meet in Brussels.
Friday, Feb. 13: The Munich Security Conference begins.
700—the number of federal agents who will be leaving Minnesota amid controversy over the killing of two U.S. citizens there, according to Trump’s border czar Tom Homan. Trump said in an interview with NBC News on Wednesday that the government could “maybe … use a little bit of a softer touch.”
“The system sucks. This job sucks.”
—Julie Le, an attorney for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, admitting to a judge that the government does not have enough lawyers to keep up with immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis. The government has since removed Le from the Minnesota detail.
An unnamed man reportedly forced a hospital in Toulouse, France, to be evacuated last weekend after showing up with an 8-inch-long unexploded artillery shell that was used by the German army in World War I lodged in his rectum. The patient is expected to make a full recovery (at least physically) but is likely to face many uncomfortable questions in the coming weeks, months, and probably years.
