by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 09:00:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (“July” is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in July 2025
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 1.7% annual gain for Julydown from a 1.9% rise in the previous month. The 10-
City Composite increased 2.3%, down from a 2.7% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite
posted a year-over-year gain of 1.8%, down from a 2.2% increase in the previous month.New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.4% increase in July,
followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.8%.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.1%. Both the 10-City
Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1%, respectively.
…
“July’s results reinforce that the housing market has downshifted to a much slower gear,” said Nicholas
Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones
Indices. “National home prices rose just 1.7% year-over-year, down from June’s 1.9% pace and a far
cry from the double-digit gains of two years ago. In fact, this is one of the weakest annual price
increases in the past decade – and notably, it’s below the 2.7% rise in consumer prices over the same
period. In other words, U.S. home values have essentially stagnated after inflation, marking the third
straight month of real housing wealth decline for homeowners. This reversal is striking: during the
pandemic boom, home prices were climbing far faster than inflation, rapidly boosting homeowners’ real
equity. Now, the situation has flipped – over the last year, owning a home yielded a modest nominal
gain, but an inflation-adjusted loss.“What’s keeping price growth barely in positive territory at all is the rebound we saw earlier in 2025
offsetting a soft patch in late 2024. National home prices edged down slightly last autumn and then
crept back up in the first half of this year. The net result is that July’s index level is only about 1.7%
higher than a year ago. Essentially, the market experienced a minor dip and recovery within a 12-month
span, leaving us with little overall appreciation. This kind of volatile plateau stands in stark contrast to
the roaring price surges of 2021, and it underscores just how decisively the market’s momentum has
cooled.
emphasis added
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in July (SA). The Composite 20 index was down 0.1% (SA) in July.
The National index was down 0.1% (SA) in July.
The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.3% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.8% year-over-year.
The National index NSA was up 1.7% year-over-year.
Annual price changes were below expectations. I’ll have more later.
