MLB opening day is here! But how will weather play a role in the seasons 2026 start on the ROWI scale? FOX Weather Meteorologists Craig Herrera and Britta Merwin break down the impacts for some of the upcoming games.
CHICAGO — Major League Baseball’s Opening Day is set to get underway Thursday and FOX Weather has your complete hardball forecast.
WHAT IS FOX WEATHER’S ROWI?
FOX Weather has you covered throughout the long road to October with FOX Weather’s Exclusive ROWI — the Risk of Weather Impact. It’s a scale based on a comprehensive set of factors, customized for each sport that take into account precipitation, wind, temperature, humidity, lightning risk, and other weather conditions that could impact a particular game.
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MESA, ARIZONA – MARCH 23: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees warms up on deck during the first inning of the spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park on March 23, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona.
((Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)) -
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 23: Rafael Devers #16 of the San Francisco Giants takes batting practice before the game at Oracle Park on March 23, 2026 in San Francisco, California.
((Photo by Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)) -
Los Angeles, CA – March 24: Dodgers starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani delivers a first inning pitch against the Angels at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA on Tuesday, March 24, 2026.
( (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images))
The ROWI can determine the likelihood of delays and cancellations, but also highlights the weather conditions that measurably influence the game’s result.
In terms of baseball, a HIGH ROWI means a game is likely to be delayed or postponed due to weather.
A MEDIUM ROWI means that a game has a chance of being delayed or postponed due to weather and/or the ambient weather conditions are enough to measurably influence the game’s outcome.
A LOW ROW means that weather is not expected to have a significant impact on the contest and a ZERO ROWI means that games resemble indoor conditions.
MLB HALL OF FAMER JOHN SMOLTZ DISCUSSES HOW DIFFERENT WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPACT BASEBALL
Wednesday at 8:05 p.m. ET — New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants
ROWI: Medium
Ahead of Thursday’s full slate of games, the Yankees and Giants renew their 150-year-old rivalry — squaring off by the Bay in the MLB season opener.
(FOX Weather)
The ROWI is highlighting wind gusts up to 20 mph as potentially having an impact on the game for much of the game.
TAMPA, FL – MARCH 19: Max Fried #54 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Baltimore Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 19, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
((Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Max Fried will start for the Yankees against the Giants’ Logan Webb, both of whom will hope to lean on their top-of-the-league groundball rates to minimize any role the wind might play in the early innings.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA – MARCH 01, 2026: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants throws a pitch during the first inning of a spring training game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium on March 01, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona.
((Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Yankee slugger Aaron Judge will aim to neutralize any wind blowing into Oracle Park, after leading baseball in average exit velocity last year. Meanwhile, the Giants hope power-hitter Rafael Devers will be able to cut through any headwinds — he has four hits, including two home runs in 10 at-bats against Fried.
HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER
Thursday at 2:20 p.m. ET — Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
ROWI: HIGH
The ROWI has flagged the Cubs’ opener against the Nationals as the game most likely to be postponed due to weather.
Chicago is under a Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
(SOURCE GOES HERE)
Severe thunderstorms are set to develop Thursday afternoon, likely around first pitch and continue into the evening.
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – MARCH 11: Cade Cavalli #24 of the Washington Nationals throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning of a spring training game at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 11, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida.
((Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) / Getty Images)
The Cubs have currently not announced any schedule changes.
Behind the storms, temperatures will plummet into the 30s in Chicago, which could impact some pitchers. Matthew Boyd, who emerged as the Cubs’ ace last season, and Washington’s young talent Cade Cavalli are slated to start Thursday.
MESA, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 21: Matthew Boyd #16 of the Chicago Cubs pitches during a Spring Training game against the Texas Rangers at Sloan Park on February 21, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona.
((Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Clear skies for the majority of Opening Day slate
Outside of the Cubs-Nationals, picture-perfect baseball weather is expected across much of the rest of the Opening Day slate.
(FOX Weather)
The ROWI is currently LOW for both the Red Sox at Cincinnati and the Rays at St. Louis, both of which could also see rain at some point Thursday.
Be sure the check out the exclusive FOX Weather ROWI throughout the baseball season.
