A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for portions of the Florida coast as Tropical Depression Nine, which will likely become Hurricane Imelda, inches closer to the southeastern U.S. coast. FOX Weather Meteorologists Haley Meier and Nick Kosir break down the latest forecast on Sept. 28, 2025.
MIAMI – Tropical storm alerts remain in effect for portions of the eastern Florida coastline and at least two states have declared pre-emptive states of emergency as a looming storm system remains on its way to becoming future Hurricane Imelda, bringing the potential threat of days of flooding rain and strong winds to parts of the Southeast coast.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system Tropical Depression Nine after winds reached 35 mph and developed a tropical core.
And with the storm system expected to continue to develop and strengthen, a Tropical Storm Watch now extends from the Palm Beach/Martin County line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.
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While Florida isn’t expecting a landfall from future Hurricane Imelda, the storm is expected to move close enough that it could bring tropical-storm-force winds on Monday.
Next comes solving the complicated future of Tropical Depression Nine, which still features multiple scenarios over the next several days.
TD 9 is currently located in the area of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas and is moving off to the north-northwest.
While future Imelda isn’t expected to make landfall in Florida, officials there have been asking people to prepare for possible tropical storm conditions. FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime has the latest from Melbourne Beach, Florida.
That motion is expected to continue on Sunday at a faster speed and will continue through Monday.
On that track, the NHC said Tropical Depression Nine will move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast early this week.
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A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and Sal Salvador. Portions of the northwestern Bahamas are also included in the Tropical Storm Warning.
But while there remains tremendous uncertainty in the storm’s eventual track as it continues to move north early next week due to a myriad of complex atmospheric variables in play – including the storm’s proximity to major Hurricane Humberto – multiple forecast models suggest the potential for the storm could still make landfall and/or bring significant impacts to the Southeastern coast.
But the NHC’s new official forecast cone issued midday Saturday predicts future-Imelda will reach hurricane status just off the Southeastern coast by late Monday and remain that way into Wednesday as it nears or even reaches the coast into the middle of the week.
However, the bulk of the cone is leaning towards the scenario of the storm slowing to a crawl while meandering just offshore, then taking a turn to the east away from the coast.
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“Even if likely-Hurricane Imelda does not make landfall, potentially dangerous rainfall is likely over at least South Carolina and the eastern two-thirds of North Carolina, with the Low Country and southeastern North Carolina getting the most,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “But if it makes landfall, as a number of the computer forecasts still indicate, rainfall capable of producing flash flooding will occur over a larger area, including in the mountains.”
The NHC indeed says the system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts.
“I think the thing we’re most concerned about is it’s not going to (need) a direct landfall for there to be some significant impacts from storm surge, winds, rainfall, flooding, especially if we have a system that’s meandering here along or near the coast, say, of South Carolina,” National Hurricane Deputy Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather. “And there are still scenarios where the system could come in and make landfall or sit here for several days or stall out and then move off to the east. So, but again, it’s just to remind people that even if you don’t see an explicit landfall forecast, it doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be impacts.”
The worrisome forecast has prompted South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster to declare a preemptive state of emergency for the entire state.
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FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross agreed with the complex forecast, noting that computer models are split on whether likely-Imelda will directly hit the U.S. mainland.
“There is a strong consensus in the various computer forecasts that Imelda will likely track to the north, paralleling the Florida coast at least through the weekend,” Norcross said Friday. “About Monday, however, it looks likely to face a fork in the road. Either it will turn right, out to sea, or it will arc left into the Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina coast.”
Norcross emphasized that forecasts for just-developing systems are subject to large errors and are likely to change.
NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters flew reconnaissance missions into PTC Nine Thursday and Friday which provide the NHC with better data collection in both the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. This data will help computer forecast models develop a more accurate picture of the track and future intensity of the storm.
States prepare for potential impacts
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Aside from the state of emergency in South Carolina, cities and counties were taking localized precautions.
The City of Charleston announced a local state of emergency Saturdayclearing storm drains, lowering water levels, prepositioning water pumps and bringing in extra staff.
“Today’s action is about readiness,” said Mayor William Cogswell. “We’ll keep residents informed with clear, timely updates as the forecast evolves.”
Conway, South Carolina declared a local State of Emergency ahead of the storm and Folly Beach closed its City Hall on Friday.
North Carolina’s Emergency Management department said it is also monitoring the latest weather forecasts.
Duke Energy, which services power to 80 counties in North Carolina, says a significant portion of the storm’s possible paths are in their service area.
“Our in-house team of meteorologists is following the path of that storm, and we use that forecast to power our damage modeling system,” spokesperson Jeff Brooks told FOX Weather. “And that modeling system helps us to identify where we’re likely to see storm impacts. Our goal is always, if we can, is to position resources at the appropriate places so they’re able to respond quickly when the storm strikes.”
Torrential rains threaten dangerous flooding in Caribbean
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan shares his biggest concerns with the newly formed Tropical Depression Nine off the Southeast coast.
TD Nine is expected to bring several inches of rain and tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas and nearby Caribbean Islands, prompting flash flooding threats.
“This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica,” the NHC said.
