Brussels – The European Commission has warned this Tuesday of the risk that the Government will not comply with the increase in public spending agreed with Brussels for 2026, although its estimate is based on the autumn economic forecasts because Spain, for the second year, has not presented a budget plan.
This is how the economic commissioner explained it, Valdis Dombrovskisat a press conference in Brussels to report on the conclusions of the Community Executive in the European semester cycle.
In the case of Spain, the community analysis foresees that the growth of net spending in 2026 “exceeds the limit recommended by the Council”, although it specifies that such deviation is less than 0.3% annually and 0.6% of accumulated GDP.
“Therefore, Spain is expected to be at risk of failing to meet the maximum recommended growth in net spending in 2026,” according to the European Commission.
The analysis from Brussels coincides with what was reported by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) last month, regarding its forecasts for the growth of primary spending net of income measures, the main supervision variable of the European fiscal framework.
Thus, with the latest data available, AIReF estimates that in 2026 there will be a growth in public spending of 4.6%, compared to the 3.5% committed to Brussels in the Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan. Likewise, it agrees with the Commission that the annual limit (0.3% of GDP) would be exceeded by approximately 1,200 million, but not the accumulated limit (0.6% of GDP).
In short, it considers that no additional adjustments would be necessary in 2025, while in 2026 the annual limit would be exceeded by a small margin, but not the accumulated one. (November 25)
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