While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some downside risks.
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), WSJ January mean (red), WSJ January median for 2026 (blue), 20% trimmed high/low band (gray lines), and Goldman Sachs 1/16 tracking (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ January survey, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
That being said, the mean response to the probablity of recession in the next 12 months dropped from 33% in the October survey to 27% in the current.
Fgure 2: Mean probability of recession in the next 12 months, % (blue squares). Source: WSJ survey.
Only two out of 74 respondents (AC Cutts and Joel Naroff) predict two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
