We have traditionally reached out to leading Ukrainian and international analytical teams asking them to share their views on key macroeconomic indicators for the end of 2025 and 2026. On this page, you’ll find visualisations of the most important forecasts.
In 2025, all non-government forecasters expect real GDP growth to slow down – the range of forecasts is currently 2.0–2.6%, with a median forecast of 2.3%, compared to actual growth of 2.9% in 2024. However, even this level will allow GDP to exceed the $200 billion mark – a record set in 2021. The median forecast for nominal GDP in 2025 is $210 billion.
The war will still pose economic challenges: according to the median forecast, the hryvnia will depreciate by 3%, and prices will rise by 9%. This is better than in 2024, when the hryvnia depreciated by almost 10% and prices jumped by 12%, but not by much. Defence spending – more than half of the state budget – remains a burden on public finances. The government is financing the deficit mainly through borrowing, which is increasing public debt (to almost 100% of GDP). Still, the good news is that the 2025 financing needs are already covered.
For 2026, economists expect real GDP growth of 3.0% (median), which would bring nominal GDP close to $225 billion. However, if the war continues, the consolidated budget deficit will remain high at over 19% of GDP (excluding grants in revenues), and total financing needs (deficit and debt repayments) could reach $54 billion.
Such funds are not included in the current commitments of our international partners, whose planning was based on earlier IMF assumptions of a quicker end to the war. Moreover, rule-of-law issues in Ukraine may put at risk even the financial assistance that has already been budgeted and was supposed to be provided to Ukraine upon fulfilment of its obligations. In the context of the expected end of US assistance, this is a worrying signal.
