“Until we hear Brazil get mentioned, I wouldn’t get excited”

That’s Jason Miller, supply chain expert at MSU, noting 40% tariff to remain on Brazilian coffee (and other) exports to the United States, according to ABCNews.

Figure 1: Import price of green bean coffee, n.s.a. (blue), PPI for coffee, n.s.a. (green), price for ground coffee (tan), all in logs, 2025M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.