Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
In this penultimate edition of the newsletter in 2025, we take a look at an unsettled year.
In March, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and handed over to the International Criminal Court by President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., a former ally. Later that month, Myanmar saw a huge earthquake that devastated the country’s center and helped the junta grind out a partial comeback.
In May, Singapore saw its first election since its new prime minister, Lawrence Wong, took over last year. Despite the ruling party’s jitters, its final performance was strong.
From August on, numerous countries—the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia—were battered by extreme weather and flooding. And in October, a joint U.K. and U.S. investigation into the Prince Group revealed the extent to which scam groups are embedded in the Cambodian state.
But four stories really stood out—and reshaped the region.
I’m off for the holidays next week but will see you for a preview of the year ahead on New Year’s Eve.
As the year ends, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is back on and, at the time of writing, developing rapidly.
Fighting has now entered its second week, and Thailand denies U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims of a negotiated cease-fire. The Thai military has declared maximalist goals to destroy Cambodia’s military capabilities and is planning a naval embargo. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul seems keen to ride a wave of nationalist triumphalism, having dissolved the House of Representatives to hold elections early next year.
The exact boundaries between the two countries have long been disputedwith prior clashes as recently as 2011. But the origins of the current conflict are murky.
Incidents this year where Thai soldiers were wounded by land mines raised tensions. Thailand accused Cambodia of laying new mines, while Cambodia claimed they were remnants of previous conflicts. Then Cambodia’s de facto leader, Hun Sen, leaked a phone call between him and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in which she seemed deferential in discussing the issue, helping to topple her from power in early July.
Fighting broke out later that month, with both sides accusing the other of firing first. With the latest round, both sides are again accusing the other of starting it. Whatever the case, Thailand holds the edge on the battlefield and seems determined to press it.
Southeast Asia Rides Out Tariffs
When Trump announced his tariffs in April, many—myself included—predicted disaster for Southeast Asia’s export-driven economies. In fact, preliminary data suggests the region has not only survived but maybe even thrived.
The region is on track to export about $300 billion more in goods this year than in 2024, according to a report by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute. With lower average tariffs than China, Southeast Asia’s exports to the United States have overtaken the former’s. And investment in the region has remained strong.
Another concern was that Chinese goods locked out of the United States would flood into the region. Yet this may be on net a positive, according to the report. While some sectors, such as textiles, are being outcompeted by China, others are getting a lift from its cheaper intermediate and capital goods.
Still, there are ongoing worries. The trade deals signed with the United States by Malaysia and Cambodia commit those countries to following U.S. exports controls aimed at China, angering the latter. And not all countries are doing well, with Indonesia in particular seeing exports drop and investment flee.
This year saw a wave of youth protests from Bulgaria to Nepal, and Southeast Asia was a major epicenter, too. Young populations, anger at corruption, and protests taking inspiration from those in other countries were threads that bound the disparate protests together.
The Philippines has seen months of recurrent protests focused on corruption in flood prevention projects—an issue that recurrent extreme weather has made extremely pressing.
In August, Indonesia saw some of its largest protests in decades. Anger over parliamentarians’ extremely generous housing allowance turned volcanic after riot police ran over and killed a motorbike delivery driver.
And in September, Timor-Leste saw major student-led protests over complimentary cars and pensions for lawmakers.
Many grievances remain unaddressed.
In the Philippines, Marcos’s attempts to cast himself as an anti-corruption reformer have fallen flat as scandals have claimed close political allies. And in Indonesia, cuts to parliamentarians’ allowances were followed by new perks. Timor-Leste seems an exceptionwith concessions sticking for now.
To Lam’s Bid to Remake Vietnam
In 2025, To Lam—the steely securocrat who assumed Vietnam’s top job last year amid a brutal scuffle—launched a major shake-up, determined to oversee an “era of national rise” for Vietnam.
The former public security minister thinks Vietnam has a small window to develop and wants double-digit growth by 2030. To try to hit this target, he has moved hard and fast.
In May, a Communist Party resolution declared the private sector the “most important force” driving the economy. Bureaucracy has been slashed, with the number of provinces reduced from 63 to 34, 100,000 civil servants laid off, and investment rules relaxed.
Business is cheering, and growth hit 8.2 percent year-over-year in the third quarter—the region’s best. But there are reasons to be cautious. Undergirding this is an authoritarian streak with Lam’s old bailiwick, the Ministry of Public Security, increasingly omnipotent.
In September, the ministry announced that investors in key sectors including telecommunication, energy, and construction would need police approval for projects. Government policy also aims for Vietnam to jump straight into high-tech areas such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors—a challenging feat.
