Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s (blue, left log scale); EPU (red, right scale). Source: BLS, policyuncertainty.com.
Figure 2: Manufacturing production (blue, left log scale), Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index (red, right scale). Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, Caldara et al.
Of course, not all is the same as in 2003. This was two years after the dot.com bust, while we are in the midst of a ICT-related boom. On the other hand, EPU is about twice as high as on the eve of the 2003 Iraq war.
