Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions using quarterly data, here are the GDP data series for the US I am aware of.
Figure 1: Real GDP according to BEA (blue), Ramey series (tan), BEA annual (light blue), Measuring Worth annual (pink), all in logs 1990Q1=0. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Valerie Ramey, Measuring WorthNBER< and author’s calculations.
As can clearly be seen, quarterly GDP data to make the assertion that the two-quarter equals recession rule only goes back 75 year’s prior to Dr. Antoni’s claim.
(To be fair, Dr. Antoni is being nominated to head BLS, not BEA.)
