Browsing: Recession

From Newsweek today: Source: Zandi Via Newsweek. Here’s a map indicating q/q AR NFP growth through July…

trillions of dollars that appear to be economic growth are just borrowing from the future — a debt that will…

It’s really a statement on our times. Source; Kalshiaccessed 8/15/2025. As noted in an excellent article by Lauren Gurley in…

A Paper (Nov. 2024) (first version Oct. 2024): Downloadable data used in the paper here [xlsx]. This…

Bill McBride’s assessment here. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a recession…

That question was posed in the WSJand poses three possible answers: There are three possible answers: First, it’s too early…

Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45%…

As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so…