Economy A Man Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 Is Still Odds on Favorite for BLS CommissionerBy DailyWesternAugust 17, 20250 It’s really a statement on our times. Source; Kalshiaccessed 8/15/2025. As noted in an excellent article by Lauren Gurley in…
Economy “America in Recession since 2022? A Critique of Antoni-St. Onge”By DailyWesternAugust 13, 20250 A Paper (Nov. 2024) (first version Oct. 2024): Downloadable data used in the paper here [xlsx]. This…
Economy CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession WatchBy DailyWesternAugust 7, 20250 Bill McBride’s assessment here. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a recession…
Economy Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”By DailyWesternJuly 29, 20250 That question was posed in the WSJand poses three possible answers: There are three possible answers: First, it’s too early…
Economy Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%By DailyWesternJune 18, 20250 Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45%…
Economy Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator | EconbrowserBy DailyWesternJune 7, 20250 As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so…
