Browsing: Recession

If you think that’s Kevin Hassett opining, you’d be wrong. It’s actually CEA Chair Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008.…

Tej parikh in ft inquires. He presents growth rates of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee…

From Newsweek today: Source: Zandi Via Newsweek. Here’s a map indicating q/q AR NFP growth through July…

trillions of dollars that appear to be economic growth are just borrowing from the future — a debt that will…

It’s really a statement on our times. Source; Kalshiaccessed 8/15/2025. As noted in an excellent article by Lauren Gurley in…

A Paper (Nov. 2024) (first version Oct. 2024): Downloadable data used in the paper here [xlsx]. This…

Bill McBride’s assessment here. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a recession…

That question was posed in the WSJand poses three possible answers: There are three possible answers: First, it’s too early…

Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45%…

As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so…