Browsing: Private

Post-benchmark revision, here are changes in the BLS and ADP series: Figure 1: Change in BLS private nonfarm payroll employment…

BLS will release (w/delay) on Wednesday. Until then, we have ADP (which underwent benchmarking). Using ADP data (2022M01-2025M12) to extrapolate…

FILE: An impressive ‘snownado’ amazed a crowd at a ski resort in Breckenridge, Colorado. The phenomenon was caused by extremely…

In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP: Figure 1:…

Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…

Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release. Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1)…

ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus). Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release…

Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a…

I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…

We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford…