Economy ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECMBy DailyWesternOctober 19, 20250 I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…
Economy Nowcasting Private NFP for SeptemberBy DailyWesternOctober 5, 20250 We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford…
Economy September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADPBy DailyWesternOctober 2, 20250 Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have. Figure 1:…
Politics China’s Private Business Priorities Are Party-DrivenBy DailyWesternJuly 31, 20250 On July 15, five of China’s most prominent private-sector entrepreneurs sat shoulder to shoulder at a press conference in Beijing…
Economy Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential TermsBy DailyWesternJune 10, 20250 by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2025 02:44:00 PM Note: I’ve received a number of requests to post this again. So here…
