Browsing: Payroll

From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP: Figure 1: Cumulative change in nonfarm payroll employment from BLS CES-official…

Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture: Figure 1: Official nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (blue) ,implied preliminary…

Goldman Sachs, ADP implied, etc. Also Powell conjecture. Figure 1: Change in implied benchmark revision since Janaury 2025 (bold black),…

Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release. Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1)…

Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have. Figure 1:…

Including Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, released today. Several series are below recent peaks, including the early benchmark.…

In a series of cost-cutting maneuvers, the Boston Celtics have reduced their projected salary and luxury tax payments for the…

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2025 02:44:00 PM Note: I’ve received a number of requests to post this again.  So here…