Don’t fall for video of priest turning away ICE agents from his church, it isn’t legitDecember 13, 2025
Economy ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP [updated]By DailyWesternNovember 8, 20250 ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus). Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release…
Economy Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP DataBy DailyWesternNovember 7, 20250 Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a…
Economy ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECMBy DailyWesternOctober 19, 20250 I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…
Economy Nowcasting Private NFP for SeptemberBy DailyWesternOctober 5, 20250 We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford…
Economy Trouble in Estimating Seasonals As a Reason for the Low NFP Growth?By DailyWesternSeptember 8, 20250 NEC Director Hassett makes reference to a GS note that indicates that August preliminary figures typically get…
Economy May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg belowBy DailyWesternJune 6, 20250 +139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing…
