Browsing: NFP

We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series. Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in CES Nonfarm Payroll employment…

Post-benchmark revision, here are changes in the BLS and ADP series: Figure 1: Change in BLS private nonfarm payroll employment…

BLS will release (w/delay) on Wednesday. Until then, we have ADP (which underwent benchmarking). Using ADP data (2022M01-2025M12) to extrapolate…

In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP: Figure 1:…

Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…

My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November…

ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus). Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release…

Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a…

I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…

We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford…