Browsing: Indicators

Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm payroll (NFP)…

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) key variables: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold…

Industrial and manufacturing production rise, surprising on the upside: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP…

Due to the Federal government shutdown, the employment release is going to be delayed. Here are NBER business cycle indicators,…

With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser]recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions…

Tired of scanning the internet for data pertaining to data releases in this new world? Pawel Skrzypczynski has an extremely…

Tomorrow, we get results for September employment. Bloomberg consensus is for +55K, compared to +42K at the originally scheduled release…

Key indicators, and my guesses: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (bold dark blue), ADP implied…

On November 5th, we’ll get the ADP numbers for private NFP. Bloomberg consensus is for +28K, while…

WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025: Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims…