Browsing: Employment

From ADP via Paweł Skrzypczyński: Recall that the ADP report does not include government jobs.

Private NFP continues to be sustained by large firm hiring. Figure 1: Change in employment from May…

From Bloomberg: The October jobs and consumer price index reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown,…

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 07:19:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: •…

Or, “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!” If (1) private NFP as measured by BLS equals ADP…

Mark Zandi has asserted that whether the US goes into recession depends on how CA and NY economies evolve. If…

(where I *do not* equate 2 consecutive quarters to a recession, as that’s what rookies do…): Figure 1: Annualized GDP…

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:13:00 PM NOTE: The employment report will not be released due to the government shutdown.…

Effective September 30th, some 105000 Federal workers who had signed up for the Deferred Resignation Program will…

Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data. Figure…