Browsing: Employment

ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm: Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in manufacturing employment from BLS (blue), from…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 08:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday:• At…

Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…

Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture: Figure 1: Official nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (blue) ,implied preliminary…

A compilation: Figure 1: Official BLS manufacturing employment (blue, left log scale), implied BLS preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), Powell…

Goldman Sachs, ADP implied, etc. Also Powell conjecture. Figure 1: Change in implied benchmark revision since Janaury 2025 (bold black),…

Downshift in TX. These three states account for about 27% of national NFP employment, and about 1/3 of US GDP.…

Fed Chair Powell has suggested that the BLS birth-death model is overstating per month job creation by 60K since April.…

Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September). Figure 1: BLS manufacturing employment, implied preliminary benchmark (blue), ADP manufacturing…

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 07:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…