Browsing: Employment

Goldman Sachs, ADP implied, etc. Also Powell conjecture. Figure 1: Change in implied benchmark revision since Janaury 2025 (bold black),…

Downshift in TX. These three states account for about 27% of national NFP employment, and about 1/3 of US GDP.…

Fed Chair Powell has suggested that the BLS birth-death model is overstating per month job creation by 60K since April.…

Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September). Figure 1: BLS manufacturing employment, implied preliminary benchmark (blue), ADP manufacturing…

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 07:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…

From ADP via Paweł Skrzypczyński: Recall that the ADP report does not include government jobs.

Private NFP continues to be sustained by large firm hiring. Figure 1: Change in employment from May…

From Bloomberg: The October jobs and consumer price index reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown,…

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 07:19:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: •…

Or, “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!” If (1) private NFP as measured by BLS equals ADP…