Browsing: Employment

Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 08:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 09:20:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations,…

Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12. Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s (blue, left log scale), Wisconsin…

From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP: Figure 1: Cumulative change in nonfarm payroll employment from BLS CES-official…

ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm: Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in manufacturing employment from BLS (blue), from…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 08:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday:• At…

Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…

Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture: Figure 1: Official nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (blue) ,implied preliminary…

A compilation: Figure 1: Official BLS manufacturing employment (blue, left log scale), implied BLS preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), Powell…