Browsing: Employment

Fed Chair Powell has suggested that the BLS birth-death model is overstating per month job creation by 60K since April.…

Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September). Figure 1: BLS manufacturing employment, implied preliminary benchmark (blue), ADP manufacturing…

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 07:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…

From ADP via Paweł Skrzypczyński: Recall that the ADP report does not include government jobs.

Private NFP continues to be sustained by large firm hiring. Figure 1: Change in employment from May…

From Bloomberg: The October jobs and consumer price index reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown,…

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 07:19:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: •…

Or, “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!” If (1) private NFP as measured by BLS equals ADP…

Mark Zandi has asserted that whether the US goes into recession depends on how CA and NY economies evolve. If…

(where I *do not* equate 2 consecutive quarters to a recession, as that’s what rookies do…): Figure 1: Annualized GDP…