Browsing: Employment

We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series. Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in CES Nonfarm Payroll employment…

Industrial and manufacturing production rise, surprising on the upside: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP…

EJ Antony mangles the data: Given sampling error, it really doesn’t make sense to look at one month’s m/m change…

The White House receives embargoed BLS (and other) releases before the official release at 8:30am. If memory serves (and is…

Due to the Federal government shutdown, the employment release is going to be delayed. Here are NBER business cycle indicators,…

Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 08:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 09:20:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations,…

Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12. Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s (blue, left log scale), Wisconsin…

From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP: Figure 1: Cumulative change in nonfarm payroll employment from BLS CES-official…