Browsing: Econbrowser

A one standard deviation drop is no small thing. Actual at 85.4 vs. 90.5 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised…

Further deceleration. Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), Nov SPF (tan), GDPNow of 1/5 (light blue…

Official statistics suggest the country is below recent business cycle peak. Figure 1: Russian real GDP, n.s.a. (blue), seasonally adjusted…

Chinese forces are conducting a massive military exercise in the areas surrounding Taiwan — a major economic power and supplier…

My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November…

ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K. Figure 1: ADP private…

My title for Setser-Sobel in OMFIF, more soberly entitled “It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply”: The…

The AIER’s Everyday Price Index vs. 2024 stochastic trend, and CPI: Figure 1: American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) Everday…

Not the marrying his mother and killing his father part, but (metaphorically) gouging his own eyes out. From Aaron Sojourner:…

Betting is now 37% Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs. Source: Kalshiaccessed 10/23/2025. What happens if the IEEPA…