Browsing: Econbrowser

From Friday’s breakeven (5 year Treasury-TIPS): Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), DKW expected inflation (tan), both in %.…

Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as…

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.4% annual rate in…

September P/E ratio at 28. Figure 1: CAPE (blue), P/E ratio (light brown). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray.…

BLS will release (w/delay) on Wednesday. Until then, we have ADP (which underwent benchmarking). Using ADP data (2022M01-2025M12) to extrapolate…

That’s the title of my “No Jargon” podcast on the Scholars Strategy Networkposted yesterday. I talk about “the biggest economic…

From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, numbers that perhaps better represent the trajectory of  aggregate demand. Figure 1: Final sales…

A random thought on Trump’s moves to depreciate the dollar and to implement broad and high tariffs. The dollar has…

M/M PPI +0.5% vs.+ 0.2% Bloomberg consensus; m/m core PPI +0.7% vs. +0.2% consensus. Here’s instantaneous (per Eeckhout, 2023) PPI…

A one standard deviation drop is no small thing. Actual at 85.4 vs. 90.5 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised…