Economy WSJ Economic Survey: Downside Risk in GDPBy DailyWesternJanuary 20, 20260 While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some…
Economy ADP Downside Surprise | EconbrowserBy DailyWesternDecember 4, 20250 ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K. Figure 1: ADP private…
Economy Downside Surprise in Employment LevelsBy DailyWesternAugust 1, 20250 Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower;…
