Browsing: Cycle

Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm payroll (NFP)…

Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as…

Most indicators suggest growth in output, spending aggregates (while employment is trending sideways). Housing is suggested as a leading indicator…

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) key variables: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold…

Industrial and manufacturing production rise, surprising on the upside: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP…

Due to the Federal government shutdown, the employment release is going to be delayed. Here are NBER business cycle indicators,…

From X today: Nov retail sales came in hot at +0.6% M/M and +3.3% Y/Y, beating expectations and above inflation,…

Unsurprisingly, the former leads the latter, but the lag is (highly) variable. Figure 1: Real pretax corporate profits for nonfinancial…

Tired of scanning the internet for data pertaining to data releases in this new world? Pawel Skrzypczynski has an extremely…

Tomorrow, we get results for September employment. Bloomberg consensus is for +55K, compared to +42K at the originally scheduled release…