Browsing: Cycle

From X today: Nov retail sales came in hot at +0.6% M/M and +3.3% Y/Y, beating expectations and above inflation,…

Unsurprisingly, the former leads the latter, but the lag is (highly) variable. Figure 1: Real pretax corporate profits for nonfinancial…

Tired of scanning the internet for data pertaining to data releases in this new world? Pawel Skrzypczynski has an extremely…

Tomorrow, we get results for September employment. Bloomberg consensus is for +55K, compared to +42K at the originally scheduled release…

Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production,…

My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction…

Torsten Slok provides this illuminating picture of discretionary spending (y/y), by category. A year ago, I wrote…

SP Global’s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3): Figure 1: Nonfarm…

Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second…

June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P…