Browsing: Core

2025Q4 2nd release, GDPNow, and Survey of Professional Forecasters: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (3/13) (light blue square), March…

Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs…

Yesterday, Jim moved the Econbrowser  Little Econ Watcher’s countenance to neutral 😐, based primarily on Q3 growth, using the methodology…

From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, numbers that perhaps better represent the trajectory of  aggregate demand. Figure 1: Final sales…

Further deceleration. Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), Nov SPF (tan), GDPNow of 1/5 (light blue…

Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1)…

Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption…

Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown),…

Q2 final sales to private domestic purchasers — arguably a better indicator over time about momentum in…

Shocker in PPI: 0.9% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus: Figure 1: Top panel, Instantaneous inflation for core CPI…