Economy ADP Private NFP Employment below Consensus, Large Firm Flat, Mfg DownBy DailyWesternJanuary 8, 20260 Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…
Economy Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm PayrollBy DailyWesternDecember 2, 20250 Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release. Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1)…
Economy Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)By DailyWesternAugust 27, 20250 Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus): Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series…
Economy ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?By DailyWesternJuly 3, 20250 ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is…
Economy May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg belowBy DailyWesternJune 6, 20250 +139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing…
