Economy Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm PayrollBy DailyWesternDecember 2, 20250 Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release. Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1)…
Economy ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECMBy DailyWesternOctober 19, 20250 I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…
