Browsing: ADP

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 08:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…

In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP: Figure 1:…

Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…

ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K. Figure 1: ADP private…

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 07:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday:• At…

Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release. Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1)…

From ADP via Paweł Skrzypczyński: Recall that the ADP report does not include government jobs.

ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus). Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release…

Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a…

I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…