Including Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, released today. Several series are below recent peaks, including the early benchmark.
Figure 1: CES Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (blue), implied preliminary benchmark (tan), early benchmark (green), implied GS final benchmark (red), CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, 3 month centered moving average (pink), and covered QCEW total employment, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (light blue), all in 000’s, s.a. Implied preliminary benchmarks calculated by wedging in the revision between 2024M03 to 2025M03. Source: BLS, Philadelphia FedGoldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
