Communities from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest will be under the threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday. FOX Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver has the latest forecast.
BISMARCK, N.D. – A frontal boundary slowly pushing through the northern tier of the country will be the focus of severe thunderstorms over the next couple of days, with thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of North Dakota, including Bismarck and Fargo, under the greatest risk for severe storms on Thursday, with the threat shifting slightly eastward on Friday.
The most intense storm activity is forecast to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours, with thunderstorms potentially continuing into the overnight period.
Forecasters warn that some of these storms could evolve into a mesoscale convective system (MCS), which could take the form of a squall line or even a derecho, depending on the thunderstorms’ longevity.
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Thursday severe storm threat
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The greatest threat level during the next few days is a Level 3 out of 5 on the severe storm index scale, with around 500,000 residents under the threat on any given day.
“Scattered supercells are likely to develop during [Thursday] afternoon and grow into a severe MCS,” meteorologists wrote in the latest SPC outlook. “This setup could support a few tornadoes, significant wind damage, and hailstones greater than two inches in diameter.”
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Depending on the evolving threat, the SPC, in coordination with local National Weather Service offices, are expected to issue either Severe Thunderstorm Watches or Tornado Watches in advance of the event.
Both alerts indicate that environmental conditions are favorable for the development of severe storms and typically remain in effect for several hours.
NOAA’s Severe Thunderstorm Risk Categories
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Over the weekend, storm chances will extend farther east into cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and Green Bay, but the intensity and coverage of these storms will largely depend on the availability of atmospheric instability.
While general thunderstorm activity is expected to impact much of the Midwest on Saturday, most of the precipitation is expected to remain below severe weather criteria.
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Thunderstorms don’t need to reach severe limits to be considered dangerous and produce problems.
Heavy rainfall can lead to localized flash flooding and cloud-to-ground lightning remains a significant cause of storm-related fatalities.
