by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are August Retail Sales and Housing Starts.
For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.
The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates.
—– Monday, September 15th —–
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, down from 11.9.
—– Tuesday, September 16th —–
8:30 am and; Retail sales for August will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August.
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.4%.
10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, up from 32 in August. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
—– Wednesday, September 17th —–
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August.
This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.375 million SAAR, down from 1.428 million SAAR.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
—– Thursday, September 18th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 240 thousand from 263 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 2.5, up from 0.0.
—– Friday, September 19th —–
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2025
