by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are May Retail Sales and Housing Starts.
For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged.
—– Monday, June 16th —–
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2.
—– Tuesday, June 17th —–
8:30 AM: Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in retail sales.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May.
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.7%.
10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, up from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
—– Wednesday, June 18th —–
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 250 thousand, up from 248 thousand last week.
8:30 am and; Housing Starts for May.
This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.370 million SAAR, up from 1.361 million SAAR in April.
During the day: The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: FOMC Statement. The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
—– Thursday, June 19th —–
All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day
—– Friday, June 20th —–
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month.
