by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 07:53:00 PM
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Week at Another Long-Term Low
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move lower over the past 4 months. The first Fridays in August and September account for about half of the total drop thanks to weaker results in the jobs report.
Since the September 5th jobs report, rates have held a sideways-to-slightly lower range that’s resulted in several additional “lowest since” headlines. There’s nothing special about today in that regard. Bonds (which dictate rates) happened to improve, so rates inched to another 11+ month low.
Today’s levels aren’t appreciably different than last Friday’s. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next two days thanks to economic data tomorrow morning and the Fed announcement on Wednesday. [30 year fixed 6.25%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.4%.
• At 10:00 AM, The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, up from 32 in August. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
