There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time for worry.
Figure 1: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue), nonfarm payroll employment (tan), private nonfarm payroll employment (red), private nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (red), all in logs 2025M04=0, seasonally adjusted. Civilian employment is experimental series using smoothed population controls to 2024M12. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, NBER.
Civilian employment has a peak at April 2025, even as NFP (total, private) have continued to rise. ADP private NFP decreased in June.
In truth, out of the last four recessions, the household series peaks before establishment only twice, as discussed in this post. Below are the (real-time) depictions of the household and establishment series around recession dates for the previous four recessions.
Figure 2: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 6/7/1990. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.
Figure 3: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 5/4/2001. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.
Figure 4: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 2/1/2008. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.
Figure 5: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 4/3/2020. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.
In real time, the household series turns one month earlier than the establishment in two cases (2001, 2007), and twice the turning points are the same time (1990 and 2020). In the revisions, the civilian series peaks are moved earlier once (1990), and later by two months (2001). The NFP peak is moved later once (2001 recession).
