From the retail sales release, nominal retail sales in October constant vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In real terms, they’re down.
Figure 1: Real retail sales deflated by chained CPI (blue), by CPI-all (tan), real consumption (green), all in logs 2025M01=0 . October consumption is predicted using a first differences regression of consumption on real retail sales, 2025M01-25M09. Source: Census, BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.
