A leading Republican called Gov. Kathy Hochul’s track record “abysmal” on the heels of her recent gubernatorial visit to Western New York.
“The only thing New Yorkers have to show from her tenure are rising prices, increased wasteful spending, skyrocketing Medicaid costs due to fraud and abuse, and more crime on our streets,” said Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt, R-North Tonawanda.
Crime increases during the pandemic were well documented, but we wondered if Ortt’s claim of “more crime on our streets” since Hochul became governor on Aug. 24, 2021, is accurate.
New York state keeps track of seven “index crimes” for a reporting system developed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Four of them are violent crimes: murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. The other three are property crimes: burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft.
Statewide data show the number of crimes and the crime rate are up from 2021. From the first full year that Hochul held office, 2022, the count is higher but the rate is not.
Sign up for PolitiFact texts
Hochul took office in August 2021, and during that whole year, there were 345,980 index crimes in New York state, according to the state’s Division of Criminal Justice Services. In 2022, the first full year that Hochul was in office, the count increased to 423,815. The number of crimes rose to 440,771 in 2023 but fell to 424,312 in 2024. So the 2024 tally remained slightly above the 2022 count and well above the 2021 number.
Crime rate
The 2024 crime rate – the number of crimes measured against the population – increased compared to the 2021 rate but fell compared to the 2022 rate. There were 2,136 reported crimes for every 100,000 residents in 2024, compared to 1,744 in 2021. But compared to 2022, the 2024 crime rate fell by less than 1%.
We asked Ortt’s office for evidence of his claim, and to clarify what geography he based his claim on.
He had statewide crime in mind, pointing to a 2022 report from the Office of the State Comptroller, which showed an increase in index crimes that year.
“Senator Ortt’s statement reflects a documented, sustained increase in crime during Gov. Hochul’s administration,” said Director of Communications Matthew Mosher.
The crime statistics during Hochul’s tenure have ups and downs, not a sustained increase.
Ortt’s office also said he was referring to an increase in local crime. His office provided two news stories about rising car thefts in Western New York. In Amherst, car thefts have nearly doubled in the last five years. Statewide statistics show the rate of motor vehicle thefts has increased by 45% since 2021, though it has trended down by 19% from 2023 to 2024.
The number of reported index crimes in Western New York was 2,017 for every 100,000 residents in 2021; 2,211 in 2022; and 2,257 in 2024. The data for Western New York includes Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.
Governor’s response
We asked Hochul’s office about Ortt’s claim, and her spokesperson referred to index crime data, as well as data that shows that shootings are down 19% this year through July 13, compared to last year. Her office also said shootings on record are at a historic low in New York City, and that outside of the city, New York is 10% below the previous lowest number of shootings. In 2024, shooting incidents with injury fell to the lowest point since the state started keeping count in 2006, the office said.
Statewide, violent crimes are up from 2021, but have been falling since 2022.
View from experts
Jillian Snidera former New York City police officer and policy director for criminal justice and civil liberties at R Street Institute, which supports limited government and free markets, said crime statistics and people’s feelings of relative safety can vary widely across the state. In addition, about half of crimes go unreported.
“This New York State index crime is only reflective of crimes where police are taking an active report,” Snider said.
State data show more crime in 2024 than in 2021, though that isn’t true in every county, Snider said.
Ames Grawerta lawyer who has written about crime trends and bail reform at the Brennan Center, said that like many states, New York saw some types of crime rise during the first years of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Some of those trends have begun to decline. Murder, for example, is down sharply statewide since peaking in 2021,” Grawert said. The number of murders statewide has fallen sharply since 2021, and the rate has fallen by 29%.
In Niagara County, Ortt’s home county, the number of crimes and the crime rate is lower now than in 2021. There were 3,852 crimes in 2021 and 3,259 in 2024, a decrease of 15%. The rate is also down by 15.6%. The crime rates of counties are calculated by dividing the number of index crimes by a county’s population and multiplying by 100,000.
Our ruling
Ortt claimed Hochul has presided over an increase in crime over her tenure.
The rate of index crimes across the state is higher than when Hochul took office in 2021, but slightly lower than her first full year in office. Crime rates vary by place, and looking at specific crimes or specific jurisdictions yields different trends. The Hochul administration focused on reductions in shootings. The crime rate in Ortt’s own county has fallen since 2021.
As for all index crimes statewide, Ortt’s statement is accurate but needs additional information.
We rate this Mostly True.
