A survey:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 12/16 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 12/19 (red line), St. Louis Fed News index (inverted green triangle), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 12/22 (pink +), Survey of Professional Forecasters November survey median (blue), and 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, Goldman Sachs, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
While nowcasted growth in Q3 is substantially faster than previously forecasted, it is not enough to bring the level of GDP up to the 2023-24 trajectory. Insofar as the momentum in domestic (private) aggregate demand is concerned, it’s fallen since a month ago.
Figure 2: final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of 12/16 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters November survey median (blue), and 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
