My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November release).
Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark (black), ADP implied estimate (tan), CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, using experimental series with smoothed population controls (red), and JOLTS-implied NFP increase (green inverted triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, ADP and author’s calculations, Paweł Skrzypczyński.
The JOLTS implied increase in NFP is 100K, my estimate (using nowcasted private NFP, trend +22K government employment, and -150K government losses involved with the DFP) is -82.6K; Capital Economics as of yesterday (not shown) is -60K, while Brusuelas/RSM is at +80K (+40K in November, with likely downward revisions to September). All in all, lots of variance, but nobody is guessing at a massive surge.
